Yemen After the Sana'a Strike: Governance, Security, and Business Risk Outlook

The airstrike on Sana’a that killed Prime Minister Ahmed Ghaleb al-Rahawi marks a historic escalation in the Yemen conflict and in the shadow war between Israel and Iran. In one strike, a symbolic leader of the Houthi-run government was removed, drawing immediate vows of retaliation and raising questions about the balance of power, stability of governance, and risks to business and humanitarian operations in Yemen and the broader region.

While Israel described the attack as an “exceptional” opportunity enabled by intelligence, the Houthis framed it as an existential assault on their legitimacy. The death of a prime minister, alongside unverified reports of other ministers killed or injured, has created shockwaves that extend beyond politics into the realms of security, maritime trade, and humanitarian access.

This report provides an in-depth assessment of governance continuity within Houthi-controlled Yemen, the likely trajectory of retaliation and counter-retaliation, scenarios for escalation, and a detailed advisory for organizations still operating in or around Yemen.

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