Enhanced Refugee Perceptions and Intentions Survey (ERPIS) Methodology Note

Overview

The Enhanced Refugee Perceptions and Intentions Survey (ERPIS) is a comprehensive study designed to understand Syrian refugees' return intentions. Building on existing socio-economic assessments (SEAs) from each country, ERPIS tracks changes in refugee perceptions across Egypt, Iraq, Jordan, and Lebanon.

The 2025 initiative is designated as 'enhanced' due to its broadened scope, incorporating socio-economic data from prior surveys. Strengthened by a strategic partnership with the World Bank, the panel design enables linkage with existing datasets across the four countries, thereby supporting more robust, evidence-based policy analysis. This brief draws on the June 2025 wave of the enhanced Refugee Perceptions and Intentions to Return to Syria Survey (eRPIS), conducted by phone with 6,316 Syrian refugees in Lebanon, Jordan, Iraq, and Egypt between 25 May and 5 July 2025, representing ~782,000 Syrian refugee households. Most respondents were household heads or primary decision-makers (72%), and 21% were spouses. This wave recontacted households previously surveyed in socio-economic assessments (VASyR 2024 in Lebanon, VAF 2023 in Jordan, SEVAT 2022 in Iraq, and the Vulnerability Assessment 2024 in Egypt), enabling longitudinal analysis over time. Importantly the results are representative both at the regional and country level for Syrian refugee population in Egypt, Iraq, Jordan and Lebanon. Findings represent a snapshot of intentions that may shift as conditions change. While this brief is descriptive, a joint UNHCR–World Bank analysis in 2026 will link these intentions to socio-economic profiles and actual return movements.

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