Enhanced Regional Survey on Syrian Refugees’ Perceptions and Intentions on Return to Syria (Egypt, Iraq, Jordan, Lebanon) - September 2025

Executive summary

The fall of the Assad government on 8 December 2024 marked a significant turning point in Syria’s political and humanitarian trajectory. This turn of events presents an opportunity to end one of the largest displacement crises in the world including for millions of internally displaced Syrians. For the 4.7 million Syrian refugees residing in Türkiye, Lebanon, Jordan, Iraq, and Egypt (as of 31 August 2025), the political transition in Syria raises hopes about the prospect of returning to their homes, together with uncertainty as to how the situation will evolve.

To capture refugees’ perspectives in this rapidly evolving context, UNHCR and the World Bank launched a joint effort to generate timely, relevant data on refugee return intentions, motivations and barriers, and inform policy, programming and investment decisions.

Syrian refugees are a diverse population, each facing distinct challenges shaped by their personal histories, experiences in Syria, and life in displacement. The decision to return is deeply personal and constantly evolving, influenced by a complex mix of social, economic, and security considerations, especially changes inside Syria. UNHCR supports refugees in making informed choices about return, led by their voices and individual circumstances. Guided by refugees’ intentions, UNHCR has stepped up support to those returning voluntarily including cash assistance for returnees, in host countries and upon arrival in Syria.

The June 2025 Enhanced Refugees' Perceptions and Intentions to Return to Syria Survey (eRPIS) builds on a series of surveys conducted since 2017 by UNHCR. For the first time, it adopts a panel design, targeting households previously interviewed in socioeconomic and vulnerability assessments conducted in 2023–2024. This longitudinal approach enables a more nuanced understanding of how return intentions evolve in response to shifting conditions in both Syria and host countries, thereby informing more targeted and responsive policy interventions.

As of 31 August 2025, UNHCR estimates that over 860,000 Syrians have returned from neighboring countries since December 2024.1 The June 2025 eRPIS interviewed 6,316 refugees residing in Lebanon, Jordan, Iraq, and Egypt, six months into Syria’s political transition. The survey’s sample design ensures statistical significance at both country and regional levels.

This brief identifies and analyzes the different elements that influence Syrian refugees’ intentions to return, drawing on UNHCR's June 2025 Return Perception and Intentions Survey in the region. It highlights push and pull factors, motivations, barriers, and decision-making dynamics, offering insights on investment priorities inside Syria, particularly in housing, livelihoods, and basic services, to support voluntary, safe, and sustainable returns, while maintaining support for refugees and host communities in neighboring countries. Full methodological details, including sampling and weighting, are available in an online appendix here.

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