Agrometeorological Early Warning Bulletin (11 - 20 October 2025)

Overview:

The second dekad of October usually signals the shift from the summer monsoon to a cooler, drier winter—a critical transition as one season ends and the next begins. However, current forecasts raise an agrometeorological concern that continued precipitation in some areas could disrupt crop harvests.

Key Forecasts for Mid-October 2025

• Precipitation: Rainfall is expected to decline this dekad but may be accompanied by residual or localized showers, generally under 60 mm. Local topography will modulate these patterns: mountainous and windward slopes in Taizz, Ibb, and Al Mahwit are likely to retain convective rainfall longer than interior arid areas. Consequently, parts of the southwestern coast could see localized rainfall totals up to roughly 40% above average.

• Temperature: Temperatures this dekad will vary by region. Daytime maxima may reach about 40°C in northern Hajjah, Hadramaut and Al Mahrah, and up to 37°C along the Red Sea coast in Al Hudaydah, Taizz, and Lahj. IRI notes these unusually high temperatures could cause varying degrees of heat stress (see Fig. 1). Higher-elevation areas—Amran, Amanat Al Asimah, Sana’a, Ibb, and Al Bayda— will have cooler nights, with minima falling below 8 °C but not low enough to cause frost.

Implications for Agricultural Livelihoods:

The combined decline in rainfall and persistently high temperatures during the second dekad of October 2025 may impact several agricultural sub-sectors:

Interior and arid areas will likely face increased soil moisture deficits, harming late-season rainfed crops approaching harvest, though pasture growth and livestock water access could see some short-term benefits.

Higher daytime temperatures in coastal and eastern lowlands will boost evapotranspiration, speed crop maturation, and heighten heat stress on livestock.

Conditions will favor fungal diseases and pest outbreaks, threatening cereal and vegetable production.

Renewed water scarcity may stress next-season rainfed crops and date palms, degrade rangelands, reduce livestock body condition, and force pastoralists to travel farther for fodder and water.

Recommendations and Coping Strategies:

To effectively address and mitigate these risks, FAO and its partners recommend the following actions:

For Authorities and Humanitarian Agencies:

• Disseminate timely weather forecasts via radio and SMS.

• Support access to resources such as seeds and water harvesting/storage systems.

• Develop contingency plans for livestock markets to facilitate destocking strategies and ensure pastoralists receive fair prices for their animals.

For Rainfed Cereal Farmers:

• Prioritize water harvesting and conservation efforts by mulching soil and establishing small-scale water harvesting structures.

• Increase field monitoring to improve pest and disease detection, focusing on early signs of fungal infestations like mildew, especially in hot and humid micro-climates.

• Adjust planting strategies by adopting short-maturity and drought-tolerant crop varieties, where replanting is necessary.

For Livestock Pastoralists and Herders:

• Secure alternative fodder sources by collecting and storing crop residues (sorghum/millet stalks) as supplementary feed.

• Mitigate heat stress by providing animals with access to shaded areas.

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