Research Terms of Reference - Piloting Longitudinal Monitoring of Displacement Intentions - SYR 2413 Syria (September 2025, V1)

2. Rationale

2.1. Background

After more than a decade of conflict, displacement in Syria remains one of the most complex and protracted crises worldwide. Hundreds of thousands of internally displaced persons (IDPs) continue to reside in camps and informal sites, often in conditions of prolonged uncertainty. As of September 2025, 1,500,000 IDPs remained in 1,373 CCCM-registered camps and informal sites across Syria. For humanitarian actors, understanding what factors influence household-level decision making about movement intentions is critical to providing timely and appropriate assistance.

Recent shifts in the political and security landscape, combined with fluctuating access to services, economic pressures, and evolving governance arrangements, have created new drivers of both displacement and potential return. The fragile gains of early 2025 have been severely destabilized by escalating violence in As-Sweida, where since mid-July, clashes between local Druze factions and Bedouin militias fuelled by military interventions and sectarian tensions, have triggered a new wave of displacement. Within weeks, an estimated 184,000 people were displaced, with only 13,800 reported returns. Overall stability remains elusive, underscoring the volatility of the current context. The February 2025 intentions report provided valuable insights at a time when optimism around return was growing. Yet the subsequent combination of large-scale returns and fresh conflict-driven displacement has dramatically reshaped the displacement landscape, highlighting the urgency for updated evidence.

While multiple displacement monitoring exercises are already in place—such as IOM’s Displacement Tracking Matrix (DTM), CCCM’s intention surveys, and UNHCR’s border monitoring—these tools primarily capture static snapshots of intentions and movements. This study will seek to reflect the fluid and iterative nature of displacement decision-making, where households frequently re-assess their plans based on evolving risks, opportunities, and support mechanisms. This gap in evidence leaves humanitarian actors with an incomplete picture of displacement dynamics, risking duplication, double counting of returns, and ineffective targeting of assistance.

At present, there is little systematic evidence on how household intentions translate into actual movement, or how intentions evolve over time in response to changing circumstances. For example, households may express a desire to return to their area of origin but delay or abandon such plans due to security concerns, lack of livelihoods, or inadequate service availability. Conversely, households that initially intend to remain in sites may later decide to relocate due to deteriorating conditions or shifting community dynamics. This longitudinal data seeks to provide insight for humanitarian actors to anticipate such shifts and design adaptive strategies that respond to the lived realities of displaced communities.

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