Yemen Market and Trade Bulletin October 2025 - Issued on 30th November 2025

KEY HIGHLIGHTS

SHORT-TERM OUTLOOK AND IMPLICATIONS ON FOOD SECURITY: Yemen’s food security outlook remains extremely bleak across all governorates, with significant challenges expected to continue through February 2026. In Government-controlled areas (GoY), recent central bank policies have temporarily increased the value of the Yemeni riyal and lowered food prices; however, these improvements are yet to be seen sustainable. There are risks of currency depreciation and price inflation returning unless comprehensive economic reforms address trade deficits, foreign exchange reserves, and dollar shortages. In addition, regional instability, high food prices, and decreased household incomes will persist, exacerbated by localized access problems that limit households' ability to afford basic food items. In areas under the Sana'a-based Authority (SBA), the food security outlook through February 2026 is even more concerning, as communities face declining rainfall, frosts, escalating conflict, reduced imports, collapsing wages, and weakened household purchasing power. Agricultural production prospects are poor, and the resumption of humanitarian food assistance and other sectoral support for the population to SBA areas is unlikely. The latest IPC analysis estimates that over 18 million people—approximately half of Yemen’s population—will remain in severe food insecurity through February 2026, with the potential for this number to persist or rise given the increasing risks. It is essential to closely monitor key food security drivers, including food prices, changes in government regulations, port and import operations, frosts, conflict, and regional crises, including possible ripple effects from escalating tensions in the Middle East.

EXCHANGE RATES: In October, the Yemeni Rial remained stable, averaging 1,616 YER/USD in GoY areas and 534 YER/USD in SBA areas. The stronger exchange rate is attributed to the recent currency regulations implemented by the Central Bank of Yemen in Aden.

MINIMUM FOOD BASKET (MFB): The MFB cost experienced a slight decline in GoY-controlled areas while remaining stable in SBA areas. Although prices in SBA are stable, households are facing diminished purchasing power due to low incomes and suspended salary payments.

FUEL PRICES: Fuel prices remained relatively stable in both areas during October. In GoY-controlled areas, prices were 16–22% lower than the previous year, primarily due to currency appreciation in August. Meanwhile, prices in SBA areas remained stable; however, they are under upward pressure due to decreased operations at northern ports.

CASUAL LABOR WAGE RATES: Casual and agricultural wages increased in GoY areas in October due to improved currency stability, while they experienced a slight decline in SBA areas. Overall, wages in both areas remain above the three-year average, providing modest support to household purchasing power.

FOOD PRICES: Food prices experienced a minor decline in GoY areas in October, following a significant drop in August, while prices in SBA areas remained largely unchanged. Compared to last year, food costs in GoY areas are considerably lower, attributed to the recent strengthening of the local currency and the decrease in fuel prices. In contrast, SBA prices remain stable due to strict price regulations.

FOOD AND FUEL IMPORTS: Wheat imports saw a significant increase through northern ports in October, while there was a decline in imports through southern ports compared to September. Fuel imports slightly rose at Ras Issa but decreased in Aden and Mukalla, despite ongoing airstrikes limiting capacity at northern ports and negatively impacting overall import performance this year.

TERMS OF TRADE (ToT): The livestock-to-cereal terms of trade (ToT) decreased in GoY areas but improved in SBA areas in October. Meanwhile, the labor-to-cereal ToT increased in GoY areas but declined in SBA areas. Despite these fluctuations, both indicators remain stronger than last year and above the three-year average, reflecting stable flour prices and favorable currency conditions.

LIVESTOCK PRICES: In GoY areas, livestock prices for goats and sheep decreased compared to last month, while prices in SBA areas increased. Despite the recent decline in GoY areass, prices remain higher than they were last year, and restricted access to imports is anticipated to maintain elevated prices on both sides.

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