Agrometeorological Early Warning Bulletin (11 - 20 August 2025)

Overview:

Yemen is entering the peak of its summer rainy season, a period typically characterized by moderate to heavy showers in the highlands. This rainfall is crucial for supporting rainfed crops like sorghum and millet, regenerating pastures for livestock, and replenishing wadis and seasonal streams.

Key Forecasts for Mid-August 2025:

• Increased Flood Risk: Rainfall is expected to increase sharply across the western half of the country, from Sa'ada in the north to Lahj in the south. Cumulative totals could exceed 300 mm, with some areas receiving up to 60% more rain than the seasonal average. This will significantly heighten the risk of flash flooding, especially in low-lying areas and flood-prone watersheds.

High Risk: Mour, Sordod, Zabid, and Rimah wadis.

Moderate Risk: Harad, Siham, and Banna wadis.

Low Risk: Tuban and Dhanh wadis.

The excessive rainfall also increases the likelihood of landslides in steep, mountainous areas.

• Sustained High Temperatures: High temperatures are expected to persist, particularly in the eastern and coastal regions. Desert areas like Hadramaut and Al Maharah could see temperatures as high as 42°C, while coastal areas reach up to 40°C. A high risk of heatwaves is expected in desert regions, with a moderate risk along the Red Sea and Gulf of Aden coasts. Implications for Agricultural Livelihoods: The forecast presents both opportunities and challenges for agricultural communities. While the increased soil moisture will benefit rainfed crops and pasture regeneration, the risk of excessive rainfall and flooding poses a serious threat. Poorly drained fields could experience waterlogging, and flash floods could destroy standing crops in floodplains. Recommendations and Coping Strategies:

To mitigate these risks, FAO and its partners recommend the following actions:

• Early Warning: Communities should closely follow official flood advisories and avoid crossing flooded wadis.

• For Farmers: Reinforce drainage channels in fields and avoid planting in low-lying plots during this period.

• For Pastoralists: Relocate livestock from floodplain grazing areas to higher, safer ground.

• For Humanitarian Services: Local authorities and humanitarian partners should pre-position emergency supplies and monitor wadi water levels.

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