Agrometeorological Early Warning Bulletin (21 - 31 August 2025)

ONGOING FLASH FLOODS EXPECTED TO CAUSE WIDESPREAD IMPACT

Overview:

In August, Yemen reaches the peak of the Kharif rainy season, with heavy rains mainly over the western and central highlands and occasional spillover to the coastal lowlands. This period is crucial for rainfed sorghum, millet, and maize, which are transitioning from vegetative to reproductive stages. Intense rainfall increases the risk of flash floods and localized inundation in wadis and flood-prone areas, often causing damage to farmland and infrastructure.

Key Forecasts for End-August 2025:

Increased Flood Risk: Continuing rainfall patterns from the previous dekad (FAO FSNIS) suggest high precipitation across Yemen’s highlands, with dekadal totals potentially exceeding 300 mm from Sa’ada in the north to Ibb in the south. IRI models show an 80% probability of above-normal rainfall over the southern uplands and adjacent coastal areas. These conditions significantly raise the likelihood of widespread flash floods in major watersheds, endangering infrastructure and livelihoods, and may induce slope failures and landslides in steep, hilly terrain.

• High Risk: Sordod, Zabid, Rama’a, and Harad valleys.
• Moderate Risk: Maour, Rasian, Tuban, and Bana valleys.
• Low Risk: Dnah, Bayhan, Wadi Al-Jawf, Mawza’, Maifa’ah, and Hajr valleys.

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