Yemen Market and Trade Bulletin December 2025 - Issued on 5th February 2026

KEY HIGHLIGHTS

SHORT-TERM OUTLOOK AND IMPLICATIONS ON FOOD SECURITY: Yemen’s food security outlook remains extremely dire across all governorates, with severe challenges expected to persist through February 2026. In Government-controlled areas (GoY), recent central bank measures have briefly strengthened the Yemeni riyal and reduced food prices, but these gains appear fragile. Given the current fragile situation, and in the absence of comprehensive economic reforms to address trade deficits, depleted foreign exchange reserves, and dollar shortages, a renewed depreciation of the currency and a resurgence of price inflation are likely. These risks are compounded by regional instability, high global food prices, declining household incomes, and localized access constraints that limit families’ ability to purchase basic food. In areas under the Sana’a-based Authority (SBA), the outlook through February 2026 is even more alarming, with communities facing declining rainfall, frosts, localized conflict, reduced imports, falling wages, and eroding purchasing power. Agricultural production prospects are poor, and the resumption of large-scale humanitarian food assistance and other sectoral support to populations in SBA areas remains unlikely. According to the latest IPC analysis, more than 18 million people—around half of Yemen’s population—will remain in severe food insecurity through February 2026, with the risk that this figure will persist or increase amid mounting pressures. Close monitoring of key drivers—food prices, policy and regulatory changes, port and import operations, climatic shocks such as frosts, conflict dynamics, and wider regional crises, including spillover effects from escalating tensions in the Middle East—will be critical.

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