Baseline Public Opinion Survey on Electoral Integrity & Reforms in Lebanon

1. Background

The Lebanese Association for Democratic Elections (LADE) is implementing the Lebanon Electoral Reform Initiative 2026 to enhance the democratic integrity, inclusiveness and transparency of the 2026 parliamentary elections. The project’s logical framework calls for baseline and end‑line public surveys to measure changes in public confidence, perceived electoral integrity, electoral literacy, and accessibility for persons with disabilities. 

2. Purpose of the Baseline Survey

The baseline will:

• Establish 2025 benchmark values for all outcome and output indicators that rely on citizen perception or knowledge.
• Generate insights (region, gender, age, disability status, urban/rural) to inform targeting of project activities.
• Provide a dataset and analytic report (in both Arabic and English) against which the end‑line survey (2027) can be compared.

3. Research Questions

The survey will seek to answer the following core questions:

• Confidence: What proportion of Lebanese citizens trust the integrity of the electoral process and its governing institutions?
• Disparities in perception: How do perceptions of electoral integrity vary by gender, age cohort, region, socio-economic status and disability?
• Reform awareness: To what extent are voters aware of the key electoral reforms, such as mega-centres, strengthened Supervisory Commission for Elections (SCE) powers, and revised election-day procedures, as well as other key reforms such as campaign finance and the women’s quota? 
• Electoral literacy: What is the baseline level of voters’ knowledge of electoral rules (e.g., preferential voting, campaign finance limits, and vote counting procedures), and which components are least understood?
• Accessibility: What physical, informational or procedural barriers to electoral participation do persons with disabilities and other vulnerable groups report? OPTIONAL 
• Preferred communication channels: Which media and communication channels do citizens trust and rely on for election-related information, and how does this influence their perceptions?

4. Key Indicators to Measure

• Overall confidence in the electoral process & institutions.
• Perceived integrity & transparency of upcoming parliamentary elections.
• Awareness of major electoral reforms (mega‑centres, SCE independence, revised E‑Day procedures).
• Electoral literacy score (knowledge of voting rules, campaign finance, preferential vote, etc.).
• Accessibility perceptions among PWDs & reduced‑mobility voters.
• Media & information sources on elections.

(The consultant will finalise exact questions in the inception phase, aligning them with project targets.)

5. Scope & Methodology

• Geographic coverage: All eight Lebanese governorates, including Beirut, Mount Lebanon, North, Akkar, Bekaa, Baalbek‑Hermel, South, Nabatiyeh.
• Target population: Lebanese citizens 18 years+ residing in Lebanon.
• Sample size: Minimum n = 1 200 completed interviews providing ±3 percentage‑point margin of error.
• Ethical standards: Informed consent, voluntary participation, anonymity, GDPR‑compliant data storage, special arrangements for PWD accessibility.

(The consultant will finalise exact methodology parameters with LADE in the inception phase aligning them with project targets.)

6. Deliverables

• Inception report & final questionnaire (Arabic/English): Week 2
• Enumerator & supervisor training: Week 4
• Fieldwork completion & raw dataset: Week 7
• Cleaned dataset: Week 8
• Analytical report (In Arabic & English)  & PPT deck: Week 10
• Public-use micro-dataset & tabulation plan: Week 11

7. Timeline

Total duration 11 weeks from contract signature, anticipated  August– September 2025.

8. Budget Ceiling & Eligible Costs

Total fixed ceiling: 30 000 USD (VAT inclusive).

The price must be all‑inclusive and cover:

• Professional fees (team leader, statisticians, supervisors, enumerators)
• Training, piloting & fieldwork logistics (transport, per diem, PPE)
• Data‑collection devices 
• Data processing & analysis
• Reporting
• Contingency (max 5 %)
• Payments linked to deliverables

9. Management & Reporting Lines

The consultant will contract with LADE and report to the Project Manager. All deliverables require written approval from LADE before payments are released.

10. Consultant Qualifications

• Legally registered research firm or consortium with at least 5 years of experience conducting nationwide opinion surveys in Lebanon.
• Demonstrated expertise in electoral research, stratified sampling, CAPI/CATI systems, and data quality assurance.
• Team leader with at least a master’s degree in social sciences and/or statistics and 10 years of survey experience.
• Ability to recruit and manage field teams across all governorates, including bilingual proficiency in Arabic and English.
• Proven track record of delivering datasets and analytical reports to international donors.