Data Collection Consultant

Terms of Reference

- Data Collectors -

Voter Behavior and Political change in Lebanon:

Analyzing voter behavior in times of crises

Background and objective of the research:

• Since the end of the civil war in 1990, Lebanon has not witnessed significant change in the ruling class. While the Taif Accord allowed warlords to reinvent themselves as political leaders, a system that is based on concessionism and partisan created wide networks of clientelism and threatened democracy.
• On October 17, 2019, a year and a half after the parliamentary elections in May 2018, hundreds of thousands of Lebanese/residents took the streets to protest the current ruling elites, considered unable to ensure decent living conditions for its citizens. The protests, which denounced the president, government, and parliament in its entirety, resulted in the government actually resigning a few days later. Following this, many have deemed the parliament “illegitimate” as it was denounced by popular demand; however, the parliament, by law, is still the sole legislative power until the next round of elections in May 2022.
• Lebanon has been facing unprecedented economic crisis (Lebanon defaulted on a foreign debt payment in March 2020 while the Lebanese Lira lost over 92% of its value since October 2019), with the COVID-19 outbreak adding layers of risks and vulnerabilities for the residents of Lebanon, leading the country towards an crisis unseen ever before with the population at risk of food insecurity, lack of basic resources and services, and increasing protection risks.
• Throughout the compounded crises, the current political class has adopted a laisser-faire attitude/policy, with little to no interventions to support the crises-affected population groups and inability/unwillingness to push through the reforms needed to uplift the country.
• With elections set to take place in May 2022 – a lot of questions and speculations arise about whether or not the Lebanese people will be voting for the same ruling class – amid a crisis that is so severe and unprecedented and an overall feeling of despair and helplessness.

Objective of the research:

Oxfam in Lebanon is looking to conduct a research project that focuses on analyzing voter behavior in the current context and climate that Lebanon is going through. The research plans to be focused on 4 districts – as it is essential to understand the differences between districts and settings (including sects and urban/rural distinctions).

The research will help understand the reasons for voter inclination and consequently will reveal the factors necessary for creating political change in a complex and deteriorating context. The research will also help inform activists on the ground on the best methods to inform political change within their areas.

Objective of the data collection exercise

Oxfam will is seeking to collect 5,000 answers from citizens of voting age. The surveys will serve as a tool to analyze voter behavior in 4 key districts: Beirut (I and II), Mount Lebanon, and Tyr. We aim at having a representative sample that will allow us to draw conclusions based on disaggregation according to:

• • • Gender
    • Age group
    • Socio economic conditions
    • Sect
    • Districts/geographical areas

Expectations

Based on the above expectations the data collectors are expected to:

• Meet/have a conversation with Oxfam to discuss the details of the assignment
• Conduct phone surveying
• Cover all related costs including phone cards
• Record answers in Survey CTO
• Refer to Oxfam with any inquiries during the data collection process
• Support with obtaining lists of surveyors
• Adhere to Oxfam’s code of conduct and data protection policies at all times

Language:

• The Survey will be available in Arabic and English and questions will be asked in Arabic.

Outputs:

• Assigned # of surveys completed

Duration:

• 3 weeks during the month of February – early march

Oxfam will:

• Provide the survey questions
• Support with any inquiry before/during or after the data collection

CODES OF BEHAVIOUR:

The process will be directed by Oxfam’s guidelines for the ethical conduct of evaluations and research, guiding the team of consultants through careful consideration of the key ethical implications at every stage of the harvest. These guidelines are available at this link: http://policy-practice.oxfam.org.uk/publications/undertaking-research-with-ethics-253032 

DISCLOSURE:

Although free to discuss with the authorities on anything relevant to the assignment, under the terms of reference, the consultant is not authorized to make any commitments on behalf of Oxfam. All data collected as part of this consultancy belongs to Oxfam and public dissemination of the data and findings and recommendations can only be done with the written consent of the Oxfam.