Election Research Consultant

Terms of Reference

- Research Consultant(s) -

Voter Behavior and Political change in Lebanon:

Analyzing voter behavior in times of crises

Background and objective of the research:

• Since the end of the civil war in 1990, Lebanon has not witnessed significant change in the ruling class. While the Taif Accord allowed warlords to reinvent themselves as political leaders, a system that is based on concessionism and partisan created wide networks of clientelism and threatened democracy.
• On October 17, 2019, a year and a half after the parliamentary elections in May 2018, hundreds of thousands of Lebanese/residents took the streets to protest the current ruling elites, considered unable to ensure decent living conditions for its citizens. The protests, which denounced the president, government, and parliament in its entirety, resulted in the government actually resigning a few days later. Following this, many have deemed the parliament “illegitimate” as it was denounced by popular demand; however, the parliament, by law, is still the sole legislative power until the next round of elections in May 2022.
• Lebanon has been facing unprecedented economic crisis (Lebanon defaulted on a foreign debt payment in March 2020 while the Lebanese Lira lost over 92% of its value since October 2019), with the COVID-19 outbreak adding layers of risks and vulnerabilities for the residents of Lebanon, leading the country towards an crisis unseen ever before with the population at risk of food insecurity, lack of basic resources and services, and increasing protection risks.
• Throughout the compounded crises, the current political class has adopted a laisser-faire attitude/policy, with little to no interventions to support the crises-affected population groups and inability/unwillingness to push through the reforms needed to uplift the country.
• With elections set to take place in May 2022 – a lot of questions and speculations arise about whether or not the Lebanese people will be voting for the same ruling class – amid a crisis that is so severe and unprecedented and an overall feeling of despair and helplessness.

Objective of the research:

Oxfam in Lebanon is looking to conduct a research project that focuses on analyzing voter behavior in the current context and climate that Lebanon is going through. The research plans to be focused on 4 districts – as it is essential to understand the differences between districts and settings (including sects and urban/rural distinctions).

The research will help understand the reasons for voter inclination and consequently will reveal the factors necessary for creating political change in a complex and deteriorating context. The research will also help inform activists on the ground on the best methods to inform political change within their areas.

Preliminary research questions, methodology and expected outcome

The overall theme which this research will explore is whether or not will the May 2022 elections witness changed voter behavior and will lead to political change. To explore this question, the following sub-themes will be explored following data collection from citizens, CSOs and activists on the ground.

• What are the main challenges that emergent political actors are witnessing
• What are the primary differences in climate and voter behavior between 2018 and 2022?
• How are voters’ preferences changing during crises – in a context that is very much dictated by elite capture, nepotism, and clientelism?
• What is the voting behavior among Lebanese diaspora?
• What are the factors that push voters to vote for the same political class/and what are the factors that push them to go for new faces? Explored variables will be:
  • History
  • Sects
  • Family
  • Access to services (including relief services and aid)
  • Political platform and affiliation
  • Other (describe)
• What is the role played by CSOs and activists on the ground in time of elections, and which change to they hope to achieve?
• What Motivate the Lebanese citizen to vote?

Preliminary research methodology:

• Context analysis through desk/literature review which will also allow us to draw a baseline to allow monitoring changes by comparing the voter behavior in 2018 and the projected behavior of 2022, taking into consideration the major shift in socio-economic conditions that the country has witnessed in the past two years.
• Mixed method – focusing on large-scale survey, in addition to Focus Group Discussions and Key Informant Interviews:
  • The surveys (conducted by an independent 3d party) will serve as a tool to analyze voter behavior in 4 key districts: Beirut (I and II), Mount Lebanon, and Tyr. We aim at having a representative sample that will allow us to draw conclusions based on disaggregation according to:
    • Gender
    • Age group
    • Socio economic conditions
    • Sect
    • Districts/geographical areas
  • Focus Group Discussions/Key Informant Interviews with stakeholders: activists/CSOs on the ground/lawyers (approx. 40 – 50)

Expectations

Based on the above expectations the researcher/research team is expected to:

• Conduct a literature review /desk review
• Develop a detailed methodology for the research, including the development of research tools (Key Informant Interview guide), in collaboration with Oxfam
• Carry out qualitative research in the form of KIIs and focus group (approx. 40 – 50)
• Analyze the quantitative data provided by Oxfam
• Analyze the collected data and generate themes.
• Submit drafts of the report to Oxfam team for revisions (the rounds of revisions will not be set ahead of time, and will depend on the quality of the report)
• Develop the last version of the research report in collaboration with Oxfam
• Participate and assist the Oxfam team in developing a dissemination plan for the final report

Language:

• English

Outputs:

• Final research report

Duration:

• Mid-February – Mid April

Oxfam will:

• Support in the development of the methodology
• Support in the drafting of the report
• Support in identifying potential interviewees
• Support with the design of KIIs and Focus Group discussions
• Provide revision and input on research draft

CODES OF BEHAVIOUR:

The process will be directed by Oxfam’s guidelines for the ethical conduct of evaluations and research, guiding the team of consultants through careful consideration of the key ethical implications at every stage of the harvest. These guidelines are available at this link: http://policy-practice.oxfam.org.uk/publications/undertaking-research-with-ethics-253032 

DISCLOSURE:

Although free to discuss with the authorities on anything relevant to the assignment, under the terms of reference, the consultant is not authorized to make any commitments on behalf of Oxfam. All data collected as part of this consultancy belongs to Oxfam and public dissemination of the data and findings and recommendations can only be done with the written consent of the Oxfam.