Pakistan – Situation Report 1: Monsoon Floods, Intersector Coordination Group – 10 October 2025

This report is produced by Intersector Coordination Group in collaboration with humanitarian partners. It covers the period from 29 September – 10 October. These reports are issued every 14 days with the next report scheduled to be published on 24 October.

Situation and Impact

Three months after the start of a particularly strong and prolonged 2025 monsoon season and resulting floods across large swaths of Punjab and Khyber Pakhtunkhwa provinces and Gilgit Baltistan administrative territory, most people forced to evacuate to higher ground are returning to their areas of origin. Thousands of families, however, are returning to damaged homes and communities. With over 229,760 damaged or destroyed homes, many families continue to sleep outside, with little protection from the elements or vector borne diseases carried by mosquitoes. Once working water pumps, the primary source of water for many rural communities, have either stopped working or pump murky water not suitable for human consumption. Schools and health facilities have lost essential supplies and damaged or covered in thick mud preventing the resumption of classes or provision of health services. Food and fodder stocks were either washed away or now lay waterlogged and rotten, increasing food insecurity and reliance on humanitarian food rations.

Of particular concern is the long-term damage to livelihoods, which threatens recovery and self-sustainability. Crop fields were flooded, devastating harvests, livestock and fodder were swept away, and livelihood assets including machinery and agricultural tools were damaged or destroyed, wreaking havoc on livelihoods and chances of restarting income generating activities in the near future. According to recent geospatial impact assessment conducted by FAO of flood affected areas, floods waters inundated around 1.2 million hectares in Punjab Province, Pakistan’s food basket, damaging major rice, cotton, and sugarcane fields. The disaster coincided with the critical window for Rabi crop planting, further threatening food security and livelihoods and the ability to bounce back.

Remaining stagnant water in some flood-affected areas is also of concern as it causes significant health risks, including outbreaks of waterborne diseases like cholera, diarrhea, and typhoid, as well as vector-borne diseases such as malaria and dengue, which thrive in these conditions. It also contaminates food supplies, posing a risk of foodborne illnesses. Poor sanitation infrastructure and a lack of clean drinking water in displaced communities exacerbate these risks, especially for vulnerable populations like children and pregnant women. Authorities are trying to respond with mobile health clinics, including those on boats, however, reach and scope is limited due to damaged roads and health infrastructure.

To further compound recovery efforts, winter is approaching and with it, dropping temperatures in a La Niña year. Some meteorologists warn that Pakistan is likely to face one of its coldest winters in decades due to the La Niña climate pattern. La Niña’s occur when sea surface temperatures in the Pacific Ocean cool abnormally, triggering extreme weather shifts worldwide. This could lead to colder than usual winter conditions, further stretching coping mechanisms of affected households particularly those in the mountainous northern areas of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa Province and Gilgit Baltistan administrative territory.

The deteriorating situation comes against the backdrop of a diminishing response capacity both by Government and humanitarian partners. Despite a robust response by local and international actors at the onset of the crisis, three months since, the presence of humanitarian partners and response capacity on the ground decreased. Prepositioned stocks and initial emergency funds were used, with humanitarian partners now seeking additional funding for sustained interventions to ensure the provision of basic services during the transition period from a humanitarian response to that of early recovery.

Weather forecast: According to the Pakistan Meteorological Department report issued on 7 October, a strong westerly weather system has gripped the upper half of the country and likely to affect the upper catchments of all major rivers along with Islamabad, Punjab and Khyber Pakhtunkhwa significantly with moderate to heavy wind thunderstorm/ rain through 10 October.

Monthly Rainfall Outlook: The Multi-Model Ensemble forecast for October, based on nine global models, indicates near- to below-normal rainfall across most of Pakistan, driven by the continued marginally negative phases of both the El Niño Southern Oscillation and the Indian Ocean Dipole. Northern regions—including Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, Kashmir, Gilgit-Baltistan, and northern Punjab—are likely to see below-normal rainfall, while southern areas like Sindh, Balochistan, and southern Punjab may receive near-normal precipitation. Expected impacts include possible disruptions to Kharif crop harvesting due to isolated storms, increased risk of dengue outbreaks in stagnant water conditions, higher chances of glacial lake outburst floods in upper areas, reduced river inflows affecting irrigation, elevated smog and air pollution in plains, and adverse effects on livestock health and fodder availability due to above-normal temperatures.

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