South Sudan - Seasonal Monitor (August 2025)

Summary

• The first half of the 2025 rainfall season has been broadly drier than average across most of South Sudan, except for southeastern areas such as Kapoeta East and southern Jonglei– even here, mid season dryness led to impacts on crop development. In Upper Nile, late rainfall onset may lead to some impacts on planting and early crop development.
• August has brought much wetter conditions across the country, improving crop and pasture conditions but also increasing flood risk and leading to expansion of flood areas. For the later stages of the season, seasonal forecasts indicate moderately wetter-than-average conditions– this may benefit late-planted crops but means an enhanced flood risk until later in the season.
• The flooding extent over the main Sudd region is now increasing from a dry and early season baseline that is the highest on record. Relative to 2024, we notice less flooding in Warrap, but this year Jonglei and Unity are more substantially affected. Overall current flooding extent is at record levels.
• We expect the flooding extent in 2025 to be comparable to, quite possibly exceeding, the 2024 overall flood extent. However, the exact spatial distribution may differ in important ways as well as the timing of the peak extent. This is due to an elevated baseline, a very wet month of August, very high river levels and the timing of the rise in flood extent. Whether 2025 will reach the record extent of 2022 is still uncertain– this would require a consistent increase in flooding over the next month or more. The next month will be critical in clarifying the situation.
• Great Lake levels remain at historically high or near record levels. Lake Victoria catchment has seen steady above average rainfall for the last 12 months, so in the immediate future lake levels will remain at near record levels. Drier than-average conditions during the coming rainfall peak of September to January may alleviate this tendency and moderate a driver for flooding in South Sudan in 2026.

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